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Commerzbank on CNB Policy Rate

CZECHIA
  • CNB is prepared to hike its benchmark rate (currently: 4.50%) further this year in order to ward off such second-round effects. But, the CB appears already impatient to talk about lowering it again in the future.
  • According to Commerzbank, a credible promise of sustained high interest rate would be valuable in capping inflation expectations.
  • It is very likely that Czech inflation in the medium-term would moderate to even below the current 4.50% policy rate – and then, the rate could be cut back – but, at this time, to start signalling that the rate may not be hiked too much beyond 5.00%, or that it may be cut again in coming year, could prove counter-productive from a monetary policy effectiveness and credibility point of view.
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