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Commerzbank on NBP and PLN

  • Today’s scheduled Polish National Bank (NBP) meeting is anything but a non-event.
  • It does not represent another routine, pre-announced step within a well-signalled tightening cycle, which markets have fully priced-in.
  • To the contrary, whatever step comes today will probably be taken ‘reluctantly’ – at least by one of the camps – and will be taken against a background of recent contradictory fundamental developments.
  • For Poland, the market long had a running assumption that the rate would be hiked by 25bp in September (based on MPC remarks) – this assumption has not changed much recently, although a further 25bp is also priced-in for the next 3-6 months.
  • What makes today’s meeting significant is that there is unlikely to be much consensus among MPC members – if NBP were to minimise the inflation threat and either leave the rate unchanged, or hike by only 25bp and try to signal that the tightening cycle is now closed (as Glapinski famously 'promised' a heckler on the street) – such signals will put noticeable pressure on the zloty exchange rate.

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