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Commerzbank on Rule of Law

CEE
  • A much-awaited ruling of the top EU court (CJEU), on the matter of rule of law, was scheduled yesterday: the court ruled against Poland and Hungary, which opens the door for EU fund restrictions to be applied in the event of rule of law disputes.
  • Commerzbank view is that the first few concrete instances where such sanctions are applied and successfully levied will set the subsequent tone for what this ruling might stand for in practice.
  • And this, in turn, will determine whether it will remain a side-note in history, or will provoke new intensified movements in CEE countries to leave the EU – that is the crucial long-term consequence with huge FX implications.
  • In the interim, however, Commerzbank will not know the answer – the EC will have the upper-hand for now, and analysts might expect some mild negative impact on PLN and HUF.
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