Commodity Currencies Feel Tailwinds

Gains in crude oil prices helped lift commodity currencies on Monday; AUD/USD was a beneficiary, the pair finishing some 23 pips higher at 0.7281. Oil prices rose after the OPEC+ group stuck to the script and raised output by 400k bpd, despite speculation of an 800k bpd rise. AUD/USD last up 12 pips at 0.7293.

• From a technical perspective the AUD/USD outlook remains fragile following last week's move lower and despite recent gains. 0.7194 has been cleared, 76.4% of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally and this signals a resumption of the near-term downtrend. Attention is 0.7106, the Aug 20 low and bear trigger - a breach would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend that started late February. Firm resistance is seen at 0.7332, the 50-day EMA.
• Data earlier showed September final services PMI at 45.5 from 44.9 last time out, while ANZ weekly consumer confidence rose to 104.6 from 103.7 last time out.
• The main event of the day is the RBA rate announcement, the meeting isn't set to provide any fireworks given the excitement witnessed in recent months and the recent tapering of the Bank's bond purchases, which was coupled with an elongated assessment period when it comes to the size of those purchases (installed at the end of the Bank's September meeting and in place until February 2022). As a result, unanimous consensus looks for the RBA to leave its monetary policy settings unchanged. (click to read our full preview https://marketnews.com/mni-rba-preview-october-2021-filling-the-gap). Tuesday's session will also bring the latest round of ANZ jobs ads data, retail sales and trade balance figures.