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Commodity FX Outperforming Safe Havens

FOREX

Safe havens are underperforming higher beta FX in the first part of trading. The BBDXY is down slightly, last just under 1256.00. US Cash Tsys have seen yields firm across the board since the open (+4/+5 bps across the curve). Equities are touch softer in terms of US futures and Asia Pac moves, while commodities are firmer across the board, aided by further China re-opening moves from the weekend.

  • Firmer UST yields are aiding the USD against the safe havens, but not elsewhere. USD/JPY is back close to 134.65, +0.25% firmer for the session. Earlier the services PMI was revised slightly higher (50.3 form 50.0).
  • AUD/USD is the best performer, last tracking around 0.6815, +0.35% so far. Lower covid curbs in China has aided CNH and this is spilling over into the AUD. Firmer commodity prices are also helping, with iron ore, copper and oil all gaining so far.
  • Much weaker Q3 profits data (-12.4%, versus -0.3% expected) didn't impact sentiment. Inventories rose 1.7% in Q3 as well (1.0% forecast).
  • NZD/USD is up off earlier session lows, back above 0.6400, but lagging the A$. The AUD/NZD cross is back to 1.0640. NZ data showed commodity prices continuing to fall.
  • Elsewhere, NOK is up around 0.20% so far, last at 9.7580, higher oil prices helping sentiment for this currency.
  • Still to come is the Caixin Services PMI.

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