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FOREX: Commodity linked FX benefitted from an uptick in the latest ANZ biz conf.
survey, with NZD leading the way higher. Headline confidence remains deep in -ve
territory, while investment intentions slid further. This should mean that the
RBNZ re-deploys its forward guidance i.e. "the direction of our next OCR move
could be up or down," when it issues it latest monetary policy decision
tomorrow, in spite of the stronger than exp. NZ Q2 GDP data. NZD had blipped
lower in early dealing on the back of the widest Aug NZ trade deficit on record.
- AUD/USD had a brief look at long-term trendline resistance ($0.7287) but
failed to mount a serious challenge of the level.
- USD/JPY registered a high of Y113.03, last Y112.95. Bulls continue to eye a
sustained move through Y113.00, with the July 19 high (Y113.17) in sight. It is
worth noting that there is some $3.3bn of Y113.00 option strikes rolling off
today through Friday, with sources highlighting that these are all calls.
- Focus Wednesday falls on the Fed rate decision, with a 25bp hike expected
attention will quickly move to the language employed by the Fed, the economic
projections & Chair Powell's post-decision press conference.