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Concern for EU Gas Beyond Current Winter

NATURAL GAS

EU measures to reduced demand for this winter have brought down the front of the TTF curve but longer term periods remain supported.

    • TTF NOV 22 down -2.6% at 165.48€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 23 down -3% at 160.11€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 23 down -1.7% at 156.08€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 1.6% at 98.7€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 2.5% at 97.34€/MWh
  • The Nov 22 contract has fallen 36% over the last month thanks to efforts by EU members to reduce demand and with high prices attracting strong LNG flows.
  • Concerns for the future market balance however are supporting periods from next summer onwards. Winter 24 has fallen just 7% over the same time period.
  • Trafigura warn of concern for next winter and sees Europe still short of LNG infrastructure. Vitol CEO also said there will not be enough LNG regas capacity in Europe next year to replace missing Russian flows.
  • Gunvor see a 15% gas demand destruction due to the high prices and Vitol see European industrial gas demand down 25-30%.

Source: Bloomberg

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EU measures to reduced demand for this winter have brought down the front of the TTF curve but longer term periods remain supported.

    • TTF NOV 22 down -2.6% at 165.48€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 23 down -3% at 160.11€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 23 down -1.7% at 156.08€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 1.6% at 98.7€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 2.5% at 97.34€/MWh
  • The Nov 22 contract has fallen 36% over the last month thanks to efforts by EU members to reduce demand and with high prices attracting strong LNG flows.
  • Concerns for the future market balance however are supporting periods from next summer onwards. Winter 24 has fallen just 7% over the same time period.
  • Trafigura warn of concern for next winter and sees Europe still short of LNG infrastructure. Vitol CEO also said there will not be enough LNG regas capacity in Europe next year to replace missing Russian flows.
  • Gunvor see a 15% gas demand destruction due to the high prices and Vitol see European industrial gas demand down 25-30%.