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Conf. Board Consumer Confidence Bounces But Labor Differential Soft

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  • The Conference Board consumer survey saw a surprise bounce in overall confidence in May, to 102.0 (cons 96.0) from an upward revised 97.5 (initial 97.0).
  • It contradicts the recent decline in U.Mich consumer sentiment although confidence remains below March levels.
  • Both the present situation (from 140.6 to 143.1) and expectations (from 68.8 to 74.6) indices drove the monthly increase, with expectations also including a solid upward revision.
  • “Consumers cited prices, especially for food and groceries, as having the greatest impact on their view of the U.S. economy.” Average 12-mth inflation expectations ticked up from 5.3% to 5.4%.
  • However, the labor differential was weak on balance, lifting to 24.0 in May but only after what was a downward revised 22.9 (initial 25.3).
  • These two monthly readings are back below the 24.7 averaged in Q4 having bounced to 30.4 in 1Q24. They are below the 33.15 averaged through 2019 and at similar levels to 1H18 – see chart.
  • The perception of jobs plentiful is also of note here, falling from 38.4% to 37.5% for its lowest since Apr’21.
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  • The Conference Board consumer survey saw a surprise bounce in overall confidence in May, to 102.0 (cons 96.0) from an upward revised 97.5 (initial 97.0).
  • It contradicts the recent decline in U.Mich consumer sentiment although confidence remains below March levels.
  • Both the present situation (from 140.6 to 143.1) and expectations (from 68.8 to 74.6) indices drove the monthly increase, with expectations also including a solid upward revision.
  • “Consumers cited prices, especially for food and groceries, as having the greatest impact on their view of the U.S. economy.” Average 12-mth inflation expectations ticked up from 5.3% to 5.4%.
  • However, the labor differential was weak on balance, lifting to 24.0 in May but only after what was a downward revised 22.9 (initial 25.3).
  • These two monthly readings are back below the 24.7 averaged in Q4 having bounced to 30.4 in 1Q24. They are below the 33.15 averaged through 2019 and at similar levels to 1H18 – see chart.
  • The perception of jobs plentiful is also of note here, falling from 38.4% to 37.5% for its lowest since Apr’21.