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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
A short time ago, networks confirmed that incumbent Republican US Senator from Alaska Dan Sullivan has won re-election in the US' largest state. Comes after the confirmation of incumbent Republican US Senator from North Carolina Thom Tillis' against the odds re-election yesterday.
- With these two holds confirmed for the Republicans it leaves the US Senate finely balanced. The Republicans hold 50 seats, the Democrats 48 (including two independents).
- The two remaining seats are still up for grabs, with two run-off elections due to be held in Georgia on 5 January 2021. These take place when no single candidate wins over 50% of the vote.
- Incumbent Republicans David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler will contest with Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock respectively. Should the Democrats win both seats it would lead to a 50-50 split in the Senate, effectively handing control to the Democrats as Vice-President Elect Kamala Harris would cast the tie-breaking vote.
- Historically Republicans have benefited from run-off elections for state-level offices, with turnout often down substantially. It is likely that turnout will decline again come the January run-offs, especially given how high turnout was for the general election. Nevertheless, the huge impact of both races, as well as the national media attention and huge sums of campaign funding likely to be spent on the race could boost turnout to record levels for a run-off.
Chart 1. Shift in vote margin and percentage change in turnout from the general election to the runoff for statewide races in Georgia
Source: Georgia Secretary of State, 538.com
- High political tensions already evident in the state, with Georgia Secretary of State set to announce a hand recount of ballots for the presidential election. Needs to be completed by Nov 20 for verification.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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