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Conflicting Jobless Claims Data Again

US DATA
  • Initial claims were lower than expected at a seasonally adjusted 211k (cons 215k) in the week to Apr 6 after a marginally upward revised 222k (initial 221k).
  • It fully unwinds the prior week’s surprise pop higher but the four-week average is near unchanged at 214k. It has drifted from just over 200k early in the year but remains low historically (2019 av 218k).
  • Continuing claims meanwhile were higher than expected at a seasonally adjusted (cons 1800k) in the week to Mar 30 after only a slightly downward revised 1789k (initial 1791k).
  • It keeps to its newly found relatively flat range but is drifting towards the higher end, vs the 1829k high from mid-January.
  • The sidelining in non-seasonally adjusted data at 1935k after 1938k compares a little unfavorably compared to the recent years.

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