MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, July 12

MNI BRIEF: China June M2 SlowsTo Record Low For Third Month

MNI BRIEF: China Steel Export Growth Slows In June

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY2 Bln Via OMO Fri; Liquidity Unchanged

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS FRI

Retail Sales / Services Turnover Publications Postponed Indefinitely

CHINA H1 NEW LOANS CNY13.27 TRLN VS JAN-MAY CNY11.14 TRLN

Inflation Momentum Ticks Up Despite Lower-than-expected Print

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Consensus Forming Around No Change at NBH Until June Following March CPI

HUNGARY
  • Commerzbank: The NBH will likely not be able to let up on its hawkish rhetoric anytime soon, which in turn, will be HUF-supportive, Commerzbank say. In the medium-term, the outlook will depend on whether such hawkishness will translate into effective inflation control. If inflation were not to return to near the target range, at some point HUF will come under pressure once again.
  • Goldman Sachs: Goldman Sachs think the NBH will start to lower the 1-day deposit rate towards the Base Rate in Q2 and they expect this process to be relatively gradual, with the NBH looking to err on the side of caution and risk leaving rates too tight rather than begin to ease too early and too quickly.
  • ING: Even though headline inflation mildly decelerated in March, the underlying price dynamics look rather worrisome, ING say. In light of the data, the NBH has no choice but to continue to patiently watch the incoming data and wait at least until June to start the interest rate cutting cycle.
  • JP Morgan: JP Morgan say excessively high core CPI momentum vindicates the NBH’s cautious stance. They now expect the NBH to keep the 1-day depo unchanged at 18% until the next inflation report meeting in June. Once the NBH starts cutting the depo rate, JP Morgan expect them to go in 100bp steps, converging with the 13% base rate by year-end.
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.