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Consensus Forming Around No Change at NBH Until June Following March CPI

HUNGARY
  • Commerzbank: The NBH will likely not be able to let up on its hawkish rhetoric anytime soon, which in turn, will be HUF-supportive, Commerzbank say. In the medium-term, the outlook will depend on whether such hawkishness will translate into effective inflation control. If inflation were not to return to near the target range, at some point HUF will come under pressure once again.
  • Goldman Sachs: Goldman Sachs think the NBH will start to lower the 1-day deposit rate towards the Base Rate in Q2 and they expect this process to be relatively gradual, with the NBH looking to err on the side of caution and risk leaving rates too tight rather than begin to ease too early and too quickly.
  • ING: Even though headline inflation mildly decelerated in March, the underlying price dynamics look rather worrisome, ING say. In light of the data, the NBH has no choice but to continue to patiently watch the incoming data and wait at least until June to start the interest rate cutting cycle.
  • JP Morgan: JP Morgan say excessively high core CPI momentum vindicates the NBH’s cautious stance. They now expect the NBH to keep the 1-day depo unchanged at 18% until the next inflation report meeting in June. Once the NBH starts cutting the depo rate, JP Morgan expect them to go in 100bp steps, converging with the 13% base rate by year-end.
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