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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
NORWAY
- Consensus looks for tomorrow's CPI data to slow across both monthly headline and core measures for January, but the more policy-relevant CPI-ATE is seen climbing to a new series high of 6.0%.
- At the December policy report, the Bank saw CPI-ATE averaging 5.9% across Q1 and marking the peak in inflation for this cycle. A 6.0% print could confirm this, if followed by lower prints across February and March. Either way, both markets and the Norges Bank both project a peak for inflation in the first quarter this year, which would confirm a 25bps hike in March as the final tightening step of the cycle.
- Despite the expectation of higher CPI-ATE this quarter, the January reading will be carefully watched by policymakers for any feed through to wage bargaining, particularly with the TBU committee to return reporting their inflation view in February, which will feed into wage negotiations later this year.
- The Bank continue to see a low risk of a wage-price spiral, but a particularly hot January CPI print would be a cause for concern.
Figure 1: Both Sept and Dec Projections See Inflation Peaking This Quarter
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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