Free Trial

Consensus Forecasts Pointing Towards Persistent Stagflation Risk

OUTLOOK
  • Mirroring the sharp sell off in government bonds amid the intensifying speculation over the path for policy rates, there appears to be no let up in upward revisions to global inflation forecasts and downward revisions to growth projections.
  • As the chart below shows, the Bloomberg consensus forecasts not only show continued upward revisions for global inflation in 2023, but also show a progressive re-rating for 2024. The same dynamic is playing out for global growth forecasts.
  • This suggests that not only are expectations aligning around the 'stagflation' thesis, but that this is expected to be a more persistent dynamic.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.