Conservatives Face Nervy By-Election In Southern Heartlands

Prime Minister Boris Johnson's centre-right Conservative Party faces a nervous wait for results in today's parliamentary by-election in the constituency of Chesham and Amersham in southern England.

• The by-election was caused by the death of previous MP, Conservative Dame Cheryl Gillan, who passed away in April 2021. She had served as the constituency's MP since 1992.
• In the 2019 general election, the Conservatives won with a majority of over 16k votes with over 50% of the entire vote share (see chart below). However, the second-placed centrist Liberal Democrats have put significant resources into the by-election, with party leader Sir Ed Davey visiting the constituency no fewer than 14 times during the campaign.
• Internal Liberal Democrat polls have shown the party gaining on the Conservatives in recent weeks, with the gap down to 4% in the latest poll carried out.

Source: BBC, City AM, Independent, Liberal Democrats, MNI

• In the unlikely event the Liberal Democrats take the seat from the Conservatives it would likely cause notable concern among a significant section of the party's MPs in seats in southern England. This region, the wealthiest in the UK, voted heavily to remain as part of the European Union in the 2016 referendum. The Conservatives' focus on winning socially conservative, largely Brexit-supporting regions in northern England has been seen as potentially alienating to traditional Conservative voters in the south.
• Recent council elections in England have shown the start of a small but noticeable trend in support away from the Conservatives and towards the centre-left Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats, or the environmentalist Greens in historically 'safe' areas for the Conservatives.