Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
NZD
NZD/USD has been consolidating in recent trade, however after Friday's rally bulls look to test the $0.64 handle and break out from the recent $0.6200/0.6400 range.
- This has emerged as a key level since we break down through the 0.6400 handle in June 2022, with the pair unable to sustain any subsequent moves back above this point.
- A break above $0.64, opens the Dec 2022 high at $0.6515 and the 123.6% Fibonacci projection of Oct-Dec rally at $0.6752.
- Bears have struggled to extend any recent pressure on the NZD/USD with $0.62 providing support, key daily EMAs are converging above or just below the handle further complicating the picture. If bears can break through 100-day EMA at $0.6172 this opens up $0.60 as a target.
- The 2 year NZ US Govt bond yield spread is a touch off levels seen on Friday as the spread continues to moderate after breaching +60bps in mid December.
- The relative rates outlook remains mixed for both NZD and USD. OIS markets showing NZ OCR peaking at ~5.5% in mid 2023, with ~30 bps of cuts priced in for H2 2023. Fed Funds Target Rate is priced to peak at 5% in OIS markets with ~60bps of cuts priced in for H2 2023.
Fig 1: NZD/USD Daily Spot Price
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok