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Consolidating Friday's Rally, Maintaining Significant Inversion

US EURODLR FUTURES
  • Eurodollars are holding relatively little changed early in the session, with yields just 2bps higher in whites/front reds in consolidation of last week’s large rally after a front-loaded ECB 50bp hike and a string of activity indicator misses, most notably the almost 6pt slump in the US service PMI to 47.0.
  • EDZ2 yielding 3.715% is 30bps below where it was both after the Jun 15 FOMC and the large beat in US CPI two weeks ago.
  • A near parallel shift lower further out the curve since that US CPI beat keeps circa 70bps of cuts through EDZ2/EDZ3, driving 2024 yields closer to where they seen as the Fed first hiked 25bp back in March, before the same drift higher again into 2026.

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