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Consolidating Gains, Rate Differentials Continuing To Narrow

AUDNZD

AUD/NZD sits a touch off its highest level since late February as recent gains are consolidated, the pair now sits ~4.7% above year to date lows seen in late May.

  • Rate differentials, observed via 2 year swaps, rose to their narrowest level since early October 2022 before widening a touch to sit at -82bps. We had been as wide as -165bps in late May.
  • The pair has observed a $1.0950/1.1050 for the most part in recent dealing, bulls look to target a break of yesterday's high $1.1056 which opens the year to date high at $1.1088 and $1.1173 a Fibonacci projection.
  • Bears target the 20-Day EMA at $1.0932 to turn the upward momentum.
  • On the wires today we have RBA minutes of the June Policy Meeting, as well as RBA-speak from Deputy Governor Bullock and RBA Assistant Governor Kent.
Fig 1: AU NZ 2 Year Swap vs AUD/NZD Daily Spot

Source: MNI/Bloomberg

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