Consolidating Tuesday’s Gain Pre-FOMC

Gold has benefitted from the pull lower in our weighted U.S. real yield monitor over the past 24 or so hours, with some intraday volatility in the USD providing les clarity in terms of direction for bullion. This leaves spot gold at $1,650/oz, with Asia-Pac trade limited by the impending U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy decision.

• The November FOMC meeting is mainly about the message the Fed wants to send about its plans for December. A 4th consecutive 75bp hike is assured this time. A step-down to a 50bp hike at the following meeting looks like the path of least resistance for now - the question is, how strongly does the FOMC seek to express that view.
• In a close call, we expect only limited changes to the Statement - but anticipate that Chair Powell will signal that the Committee is currently eyeing either 50bp or 75bp in December, with the decision to be data-dependent. If there are substantive changes to the Statement, the risks are almost certainly that they lean dovish, with either an overt nod to slowing the pace of increases, or a reference to the impact of cumulative hikes on the economy.