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Consumer Credit Showed No Sign Of Abating With Historically Low Savings Rate [2/2]

US
Following from part one, here.
  • If banks and other lending sources begin to tighten conditions on perceptions of an upcoming downturn, it could weigh heavily on consumption with the household savings ratio already at record lows for a series that started in 1959.
  • Excess savings relative to pre-pandemic trends help act as a buffer in the interim, but as we’ve noted before, these too have been trimmed notably from a peak $2.3T in late 2021 to nearer $1.4T as of Q3.
  • This is still a significant potential buffer that can be spent but how much of it will realistically be spent depends on the distribution of saving, its equivalence in real terms and whether households start to feel the need to hold greater precautionary savings if the labour market does start to cool more notably.


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