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CONSUMER CYCLICALS: Autos Week in Review

CONSUMER CYCLICALS
  • Autos outperformed the €IG index by 1.5bp, with some strong reversals from last Friday’s move from the likes of Volkswagen and Ford (both -5).
  • Nissan (+17) suffered given its Japan domicile although Honda and Toyota were unmoved. It makes sense to us to see Nissan more sensitive to macro moves with the split rated issuer in a tough place fundamentally and posting weak results recently.
  • The only supply was a VW FRN. There were no IG rating changes, but JLR got a one notch upgrade from Moody’s to Ba2, with outlook still positive.
  • Continental (+5) was an underperformer, announcing a potential spinoff of the parts-focused Automotive division. Our base case if for a broadly credit neutral outcome a la Vitesco, but we acknowledge downside skew to uncertainty. Its earnings were uneventful.
  • Honda reported with the rumoured beat coming to pass. Schaeffler results were largely in-line. Their comments confirmed the hybrids renaissance, supplanting EV growth.
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