November 18, 2024 10:52 GMT
CONSUMER CYCLICALS: Booking.com; FV
CONSUMER CYCLICALS
(BKNG; A3/A-)
Coming off a strong year (equities outperformed the index and all major peers; +40% YTD). FY guidance is for revenue growth just below 10% and EBITDA +13-14% - which consensus has taken. It should leave it ~2x gross levered to end the year and ~$16b in cash leaves it with ~negligible net debt.
Earlier this year we saw signs of a reverse-Yankee discount - not as much now (to ratings). Re. supply it seems to have a love for local markets despite near equal split in $/€ maturities next year. We see more value in rolling down into BBB travel exposed (but still firm) names.
- €Bmrk 8Y +140a vs. FV +104 (-36)
- €Bmrk 13Y +165-70 vs. FV+136 (-29)
- €Bmrk Long-20Y +200a vs. FV+162 (-38)
Last issuance (€2.75b 4-part);
- 5Y +65 (since +2 vs. €IG +8)
- 8Y +85 (+10 vs. €IG +8)
- 12Y +105 (+22 vs. €IG +8)
- 20Y +135 (+23 vs. €IG +8)
New 20Y lines;
- AB Inbev (A3/A-); +150 (+17 since issuance)
- Coca-Cola KO (A1/A+); +124 (+31)
- Diageo (A3/A-); +142 (+12)
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