October 03, 2024 15:10 GMT
CONSUMER CYCLICALS: Q3 Earnings Watchlist: Consumer & Transport (updated)
CONSUMER CYCLICALS
Changes: Finnair added under 'may see value post-earnings', Tesco left as lowest beta grocer after earnings this morning, compass added as lowest beta for consumer services
Most anticipated
- Walgreen Boots 15th Oct
- Carrefour 23rd Oct (for read-through to Auchan and ITM)
- VF 30th Oct
- Air-France 7th Nov
- Burberry 14th Nov
Most concern on current levels
- Manpower 17th Oct
- Randstad 22nd Oct
- Whirlpool 23rd Oct
- Electrolux 25th Oct
- Lufthansa 29th Oct
- Adecco 5th Nov
- Air-France 7th Nov
Likely to see value post-earnings on current levels
- Rentokil (high cash px lines) 17th Oct
- Finnair 29th Oct
- Pluxee 31st Oct
- Campari (late Oct)
Sector darlings (lowest beta)
- Tesco (grocers)
- IAG (airlines)
- Phillip Morris (tobacco)
- AB Inbev (brewers)
- David Campari (spirits)
- LVMH (luxury)
- Compass (services)
First to report (all in October)
- Airlines: Delta (US) 10th, Lufthansa 29th
- Luxury: LVMH 15th
- Consumer goods; Fnac Darty 15th
- Staffing: Manpower 17th
- Spirits: Pernod Ricard 17th
- Lodging: IHG 22nd
- Tobacco; Phillip Morris 22nd
- Brewers: AB-InBev 31st
Key themes we are watching
- Airlines cost control and management of capacity towards maximising yields
- French grocery market competition (margins vs. market share)
- Luxury brand performance vs. the market by region. Exposure to trading down/'aspirational' customers
- Tobacco co's progress on expanding non-combustibles and reported headwinds from illicit sales by region.
- Staffing co's handling of AI; both the impact to their own business and on net hiring demand.
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