November 25, 2024 14:42 GMT
CONSUMER CYCLICALS: Revisit to Q3 Earnings; lowest beta
CONSUMER CYCLICALS
(Consumer & Transport)
Lowest beta names (not a RV view, was simply strongest performers in each sector) we flagged heading into Q3 earnings (11 Oct) are mostly left unch. Few amendments;
- Added DSV for logistics and Pandora for Retailers. Note DSV move is skewed by its primary deal pricing through expectations (not earnings).
- David Campari left as lowest beta for spirits. Some may see as controversial but we give the co benefit of the doubt after strong outperformance bar Q3 and FY guidance manageable. We will circle back but we do see value on RV (€27s).
- For Luxury we have replaced LVMH with L'Oréal. Some may protest its 1/3 exposure does not qualify - yet more profitable than Kering this year and we don't otherwise have many names to choose from in pure lux who are avoiding the current macro weakness (Prada and Hermes are not issuers and Birkenstock's scale/moat is not comparable).
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