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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION
The UMichigan consumer sentiment survey for August showed expectations of inflation in 1 year slipping 0.1pp to 4.6% vs July's 4.7%, in line with expectations. The 5-10Y outlook, however, rose to 3.0% from 2.8% prior. This marks the joint-highest level in long-term expectations (equal to May 2021) in the Michigan survey since 2013.
- The latter reading feeds into the Fed's index of common inflation expectations (CIE), which Federal Reserve leadership (including Vice Chair Clarida) has cited as a relevant indicator that the Fed's goal of anchoring expectations at 2% is being met.
- As such, sustained elevation in inflation expectations means the Michigan report presents something of a quandary for Fed policymakers: the drop in the overall sentiment figure was so large that it's consistent with recession (see our 1023ET note), but inflation expectations remain high.
Source: NY Fed, UMichigan Survey, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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