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Consumer & Transport; flagging the equity levels at the close

CONSUMER CYCLICALS
Credit BulletsBulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeCredit
  • Rentokil (+4.6%); activist investor Nelson Peltz has worked his way onto the board (1-seat to current 10). Based on his history we see it as a slight credit positive - spin-offs and more aggressive cost cutting seem his go-to. The above par cash px lines have been left quiet wide.
  • Air-France (+7%); broker upgrade that (seems) to be reiterating recent themes; Jet Fuel prices -18% YTD and Airfare colour positive vs. 1H. We encourage caution ahead of earnings noting neither of those insights are specific tailwinds to Air-France (and its issues) - check with broker if they have any that are.
  • Flutter (+8%); $5b buyback programme over 3-4yrs but has leverage target unch at 2-2.5x. We continue to doubt if it takes that target seriously (doesn't have much recent history of staying in it). Generally see value in €29s but might be worth waiting for supply (may be across both $ & €).
  • PVH (flat); equities continue to ignore being dragged into trade wars - we do think PVH would have run this scenario as a risk given past incidents and recent tensions in other sectors and there is signs of wide diversification in currently listed suppliers but nothing we can put a number to yet. 29s were already wide on RV vs. peers, today's moves adding to that but a lack of good news in sight and stubbornness in the past for it to move tighter makes us cautious on taking a view.
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  • Rentokil (+4.6%); activist investor Nelson Peltz has worked his way onto the board (1-seat to current 10). Based on his history we see it as a slight credit positive - spin-offs and more aggressive cost cutting seem his go-to. The above par cash px lines have been left quiet wide.
  • Air-France (+7%); broker upgrade that (seems) to be reiterating recent themes; Jet Fuel prices -18% YTD and Airfare colour positive vs. 1H. We encourage caution ahead of earnings noting neither of those insights are specific tailwinds to Air-France (and its issues) - check with broker if they have any that are.
  • Flutter (+8%); $5b buyback programme over 3-4yrs but has leverage target unch at 2-2.5x. We continue to doubt if it takes that target seriously (doesn't have much recent history of staying in it). Generally see value in €29s but might be worth waiting for supply (may be across both $ & €).
  • PVH (flat); equities continue to ignore being dragged into trade wars - we do think PVH would have run this scenario as a risk given past incidents and recent tensions in other sectors and there is signs of wide diversification in currently listed suppliers but nothing we can put a number to yet. 29s were already wide on RV vs. peers, today's moves adding to that but a lack of good news in sight and stubbornness in the past for it to move tighter makes us cautious on taking a view.