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Continued rallies in Govie futures

BUNDS
  • Govie futures have seen some really notable rallies for the past 3 sessions, some 46.5 ticks for the Schatz and 260 ticks for Bund from Monday's low.
  • Desks have been positioning for weaker Data, expressed through futures positioning as well as upside Options.
  • Some of the early bid going into the Cash Govie open have also been supported following the German NRW miss, but all a continuation from this week's price action.
  • Risk remains tilted to the upside and next resistance in Bund is seen at 132.76 initially.
  • Support is at today's low 131.94 (gap) printed a 131.95 low.
  • US 10yr Yield is now at its lowest level since mid Sep, and for futures, although Bloomberg is still showing TYZ3 as the most active, TYH4 is clearly the front Month.
  • Today sees, German regional/National CPI, Spanish prelim CPI, US 2nd readings GDP/Core PCE.
  • SUPPLY: Italy EU3.5bn 10yr (equates to 32.7k BTP) should weigh, plus 2026 floating (won't impact BTP). UK £4.25bn 2025 (equates to 7.2k Gilt) shouldn't impact Gilt. German 10yr Bund (equates to 28.6k Bund) could weigh, but data will lead.
  • SPEAKERS: BoE Bailey, Hauser, Fed Mester.
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