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Continuing Claims Add To Dovish Takeaway From Claims Report

US DATA
  • On the above initial claims point, it’s possible Hurricane Beryl pushed those Texan claims higher (although it can cut both ways with perhaps making claims harder to file?) although that still leaves a decent climb for the NSA national figure even fully stripping the Texas increase out.
  • Continuing claims added to the dovish takeaway from the weekly claims data as they increased to a seasonally adjusted 1867k (cons 1856k) in the week to Jul 6 after a downward revised 1847k (initial 1852k).
  • It’s a new recent SA high but remains at highs since Nov 2021.
  • The 158k NSA increase on the week is in keeping with the time of year but as the chart shows it’s at levels that are right at the high end of recent years excluding immediate pandemic fallout.

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