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Continuing Jobless Claims See A Further Lift

US DATA
  • Initial claims were close to expectations with a seasonally adjusted 217k (cons 218k) in the week to Nov 4 after another slightly upward revised 220k (initial 217k).
  • The four-week average increased 1k to 212k, still slowly increasing from the 206k in mid-October which marked the lowest since Feb. The 2019 average for initial claims was 218k.
  • Continuing claims meanwhile saw another larger than expected increase to 1834k (cons 1820k) in the week to Oct 28 after a downward revised 1812k (initial 1818k). It has seen a sizeable push in recent weeks and is moving closer to ytd highs of 1861k from April.
  • With continuing claims continuing to push further above the 2019 average of 1699k vs initial entries at or still slightly below those averages, it’s likely a sign of a further moderation in the pace of hiring/labor market churn.

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