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COP, RUB and MXN Vulnerable To Falling Oil Prices

EM FX
  • The discovery of a new variant has led to a significant correction in oil prices, with the front month WTI futures down over 10% since Thursday.
  • WTI found support slightly below its 200DMA on Friday, but selling pressures could remain elevated in the near term as more and more countries impose travel bans to prevent the spread of the virus.
  • Hence, further downside risk in oil prices could weigh on COP, RUB and MXN (vs. USD), which are still very sensitive to changes in oil prices.
  • The table below shows the sensitivity of the major oil producers (>0.5mil bpd) EM FX to changes in oil prices (Brent).

Source: Bloomberg/MNI calculations

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