Free Trial

Copernicus Forecast Warmer than Normal Winter in Europe

ENERGY

Most of Europe is more likely than not to be warmer than average this winter according to the latest seasonal update from Copernicus Climate Change Service. Warmer weather could help reduce fuel heating demand and ease tight gas supply concerns.

  • Forecast uncertainty is large with a low level of agreement between individual-model forecasts.
  • The forecast signals a minimum 50% probability that all of Europe will experience average temperatures between December and February. They show a 60% to 70% chance of exceeding median 30 year historical temperatures.
  • Further strengthening of the ongoing El Nino event is expected and likely to peak around the end of this year.
  • Above-average precipitation is also favoured in much of northern, central and southern Europe with a 40% to 50% chance of significantly higher precipitation between December and February.
  • The northeast and west coast US is also forecast to see significantly higher temperatures than normal while Florida and southeast states have a 60% to 70% chance of well-above average precipitation.




Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.