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Copom Decision, Quaest Poll Shows Slight Narrowing In Presidential Race

BRAZIL
  • Former Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leads simulated voting intentions poll, followed by president Bolsonaro, in a scenario with 13 possible candidates, according to a survey carried out in partnership by Genial Investimentos and Instituto Quaest.
    • Lula Has 44%, Bolsonaro 32% in Brazil’s 1st Round Poll which compares to July’s results which showed Lula at 45% and Bolsonaro with 31% in 1st round scenario.
    • In a possible runoff, Lula would have 51% and Bolsonaro 37%, compared to 53% and 34%, respectively, in July poll.
  • Copom decision after markets close today. The latest Bloomberg survey shows 37/38 analysts believe the BCB will hike rates by 50bps from 13.25% to 13.75% on Wednesday. Just one analyst within the survey is calling for a bolder 75bp hike.
  • Amid yesterday’s strong selloff in US treasuries, USDBRL extended a firm 3% bounce off the Monday lows around 5.13 to close at 5.28 on Tuesday.
  • Data today at 1400BST/0900ET:
    • July S&P Global Brazil Composite PM, prior 59.4
    • July S&P Global Brazil Services PMI, prior 60.8
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