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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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- The BCB will release the minutes from the August 03 meeting where the Copom hiked the Selic rate by 50bps to 13.75%.
- In a slightly dovish shift, the Copom’s guidance said, “the Committee will evaluate the need for a residual adjustment, of lower magnitude, in its next meeting.” This clearly suggests the end of the cycle is close or may well have been reached, questioning the likelihood of a cycle ending September hike.
- The full MNI review of this decision with analyst views can be found here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/documents/17836/MNI%20BCB%20Review%20-%20August%202022.pdf
- *Barclays will look for further details on the board’s decision to focus on inflation forecasts for Q1’24, instead of the traditional year-end ones, due to the volatility caused by tax changes, as well as its assessment of inflationary risks based on the latest fiscal and external developments.
- *Goldman Sachs will be looking first and foremost for hints on the set of conditions that could lead the Copom to judge as warranted a final 25bp rate hike at the September meeting, particularly against a backdrop of solid above-trend 1H2022 real growth dynamics, rapid tightening of the labor market backdrop, additional sizeable fiscal stimulus (part of which is unlikely to reverse in 2023), and end-2023 and end-2024 inflation expectations that continue to track above the respective targets.
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.