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Copom Minutes/IPCA Inflation Due Tomorrow

BRAZIL
  • Central bank releases Focus survey, with analyst estimates for GDP, FX, inflation and Selic rate, on its website shortly. Last week, economists raised Selic key rate forecast for 2023 to 11%.
  • Following the BCB’s 50bp hike last week, the Copom will release the minutes of that meeting on Tuesday.
  • Additionally, markets will receive the July IPCA inflation data where the annual rate is expected to have fallen to 10.10 from 11.89% in June. June retail sales data will be released on Wednesday.
  • Despite early pressure last week on the Brazilian real and a kneejerk reaction higher in USDBRL following the US employment data, the pair closed at close to unchanged levels last week.
    • Sub 5.1298 levels would highlight a bearish threat and expose 5.1026, the 50.0% retracement of the May 30 - Jul 21 upleg, and potentially 5.0055, the 61.8% retracement.
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  • Central bank releases Focus survey, with analyst estimates for GDP, FX, inflation and Selic rate, on its website shortly. Last week, economists raised Selic key rate forecast for 2023 to 11%.
  • Following the BCB’s 50bp hike last week, the Copom will release the minutes of that meeting on Tuesday.
  • Additionally, markets will receive the July IPCA inflation data where the annual rate is expected to have fallen to 10.10 from 11.89% in June. June retail sales data will be released on Wednesday.
  • Despite early pressure last week on the Brazilian real and a kneejerk reaction higher in USDBRL following the US employment data, the pair closed at close to unchanged levels last week.
    • Sub 5.1298 levels would highlight a bearish threat and expose 5.1026, the 50.0% retracement of the May 30 - Jul 21 upleg, and potentially 5.0055, the 61.8% retracement.