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Copom Minutes Of September Meeting To Be Released

BRAZIL
  • Copom minutes from last week's meeting will be published at the top of the hour.
  • As a reminder, the BCB hiked the Selic rate by 100 basis points to 6.25%, with a moderate adjustment to their language, indicating it may be appropriate to advance the tightening process "further into the restrictive territory".
  • Goldman Sachs do not expect major innovations in the minutes given the clarity of the post-meeting statement and explicit guidance for the next meeting.
  • However, GS will be looking for hints and or discussion about the risks of further inflation generalization and rising inertial forces contaminating in a more forceful way the outlook for 2022 inflation (the latest bank projections already show a 20bp deviation from the 3.50% target), and whether the Copom will in this case consider accelerating/frontloading the planned rate hikes or tightening policy through other non-rate policy instruments.
  • Conversely, they will be looking for any discussion about the conditions that would lead the Copom to moderate the pace of rate hikes after the next meeting.
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