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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
- Core CPI was slightly stronger than expected in February, rising 0.45% M/M (cons 0.4%) after 0.40% in Dec and 0.41% in Jan.
- Core goods (-0.01% M/M after 0.07%) were weighed down by used cars providing one of the main downside surprises of the report relative to broad expectations of at least a pause after three months near -2%, instead falling -2.8%.
- Core goods excluding used cars meanwhile only eased from 0.46% to 0.38% M/M, showing little sign of the immediate feedthrough from the sharp improvement in global supply chains in February.
- Core services were stronger than expected as they accelerated from 0.55 to 0.62% M/M for the highest since the cycle high of 0.77% M/M in September. The key shelter items of OER and primary rents were surprisingly resilient as they accelerated slightly in the face of expectations for a further modest moderation.
- With its increased focus in recent months, the non-housing core service inflation increase from 0.36% to 0.50% M/M (ex OER & primary rents) was eye-catching, clearly moving the wrong way for the Fed with its highest also since Sept. However, a bounce in airfares played a large role here although was perhaps less idiosyncratic than it first appears with lodging away from home also accelerating from 1.2% to 2.3% M/M.
- We wait for early estimates of core PCE but note two specific findings. i) Medical care services (more heavily weighted in PCE than CPI) saw continued weakness at -0.70% M/M with more relevant measures for PCE both easing from January’s pace. ii) However, food services (not in core CPI but included in core PCE) bucked the trend of food at home slowing to its softest pace since Apr’21 and instead held steady at a strong 0.63% M/M after 0.62%.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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