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Core CPI Quickens To +12.0% Y/Y In Feb, Marginally Tops Expectations

POLAND

Polish core CPI accelerated to +12.0% Y/Y in February from +11.7% prior, marginally exceeding the +11.9% consensus forecast, data from the local central bank showed. Core prices grew 1.3% M/M, topping the +1.1% median estimate. The outturn for core inflation moderates the dovish tone of headline figures released yesterday.

  • Local sell-side desks point to the continuation of strong momentum of core prices. PKO point to the impact of beginning-of-the-year price adjustments, which was seemingly spread over two months. Pekao suggest that we are close the the peak, but will descend from there in a very gradual manner.
  • The data does not change much for the medium-term NBP rate outlook relative to last week, with the dovish majority commanded by Governor Adam Glapinski convinced that core inflation will eventually take its cue from the expected decline in headline prices, supporting continued interest-rate stability.
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