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Core Durable Orders Beat Amidst Defense and Aircraft Noise

US DATA
  • Durable goods orders disappointed in the preliminary December report, at 0.0% (cons 1.5%) after two particularly noisy prints with 5.5% in Nov and -5.1% in Oct.
  • Defense capital goods orders slid a further -14.5% after -16.3%, whilst nondefense aircraft and parts have played a big role in recent volatility, with orders rising just 0.4% in Dec after +84% in Nov and -44%.
  • As is often the case, more focus should be on core orders which were somewhat stronger than expected at 0.3% M/M (cons 0.1) after an upward revised 1.0% (initial 0.8%).
  • In trend terms, core durable goods shipments were near flat on a 3M/3M basis, but the orders equivalent suggests some relative strength ahead with an increase of 1.5% annualized. Both extend the disconnect seen with the ISM manufacturing survey seen since 2022.

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