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Core FI off earlier highs

BONDS
  • Core fixed income moved higher in early European trading but since around 8:45GMT / 3:45ET we have moved off the highs. These moves higher were in spite of UK activity data coming in better than expected.
  • Terminal rate expectations have also moved off their lows over the past 90 minutes of trading, too.
  • There were no headlines to drive the moves off the highs, but we note that there has been a significant reduction in terminal rate pricing and ensuing core FI rally over the past week or so, so we may have just moved too far, too fast.
  • Looking ahead to today's events, we will receive US import / export price data at 13:30GMT / 8:30ET but the key release of the day will be Michigan inflation expectations data at 15:00GMT / 10:00ET.
  • In terms of speakers the Fed's Kashkari and Harker are the highlights (although the latter spoke yesterday).
  • TY1 futures are up 0-1 today at 115-08+ with 10y UST yields up 0.7bp at 3.452% and 2y yields down -3.0bp at 4.117%.
  • Bund futures are up 0.66 today at 138.88 with 10y Bund yields down -4.9bp at 2.104% and Schatz yields down -3.0bp at 2.519%.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.36 today at 104.54 with 10y yields down -2.5bp at 3.306% and 2y yields down -0.5bp at 3.401%.
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