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Core HICP Forecast Below Expectations In '25 and '26

ECB

Headline/core inflation and GDP forecasts in the below table:


ECB Dec-23 ProjectionsECB Mar-24 Median Expectation (based on MNI ECB Preview)ECB Mar-24 Projections
Core Inflation20242.72.62.6
20252.32.22.1
20262.12.12.0
Headline Inflation20242.72.42.3
20252.12.052.0
20261.91.91.9
GDP20240.80.60.6
20251.51.51.5
20261.51.51.6
Note: The analyst medium has been compiled based on the explicit forecasts that we have seen. These figures reflect expectations about the ECB’s updated staff macroeconomic projections and may differ from analysts’ own forecasts.

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