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Core Inflation Softer Than Expected

SWITZERLAND DATA
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Swiss CPI inflation printed in line with consensus at 1.390% Y/Y in May (vs 1.4% cons and prior), and 0.273% M/M (vs 0.3% cons and prior). Core CPI came in lower at 1.155% Y/Y (vs 1.3% cons; 1.2% prior) and 0.214% M/M. The upside risks to the Q2 SNB inflation forecast flagged by President Jordan have not yet materialized.

  • For the Y/Y headline rate, this markes a stall after last month's increase. Core inflation was 0.1pp lower than consensus but almost rounded down to 0.2pp lower.
  • Re the categories in focus, housing realized its expected uptick, with the housing and energy category coming in at +3.8% Y/Y (vs +3.3% April), driven by an increase in housing rental prices (3.4% vs 2.8% April).
  • Imported inflation, however, partly reversed its April increase, coming in at -0.6% Y/Y (vs -0.4% Apr; -1.3% Mar).
  • The print might marginally increase the likelihood of an SNB cut in its meeting later this month.

MNI, SECO

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Swiss CPI inflation printed in line with consensus at 1.390% Y/Y in May (vs 1.4% cons and prior), and 0.273% M/M (vs 0.3% cons and prior). Core CPI came in lower at 1.155% Y/Y (vs 1.3% cons; 1.2% prior) and 0.214% M/M. The upside risks to the Q2 SNB inflation forecast flagged by President Jordan have not yet materialized.

  • For the Y/Y headline rate, this markes a stall after last month's increase. Core inflation was 0.1pp lower than consensus but almost rounded down to 0.2pp lower.
  • Re the categories in focus, housing realized its expected uptick, with the housing and energy category coming in at +3.8% Y/Y (vs +3.3% April), driven by an increase in housing rental prices (3.4% vs 2.8% April).
  • Imported inflation, however, partly reversed its April increase, coming in at -0.6% Y/Y (vs -0.4% Apr; -1.3% Mar).
  • The print might marginally increase the likelihood of an SNB cut in its meeting later this month.

MNI, SECO