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Core PCE Accelerates To 4.4% Over Three Months, Supercore 5.5%

US DATA
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  • Core PCE inflation printed 0.32% M/M in March. That’s versus consensus of 0.3, although before yesterday’s Q1 release we’d seen 2.d.p estimates honing in on a ‘low’ 0.3.
  • That accounts for some of yesterday’s upside surprise for Q1, with the remainder being pushed back to Jan, lifted from 0.45 to 0.50%.
  • The fact some of the uplift landed early in the quarter helps explain the initially dovish FI reaction, but the still very strong run rates, especially in supercore, has helped pare those initial gains.
  • 3-mth run rate: 4.4% annualized in Mar vs 3.8 (pre-revision 3.5) in Feb.
  • 6-mth rate at 3.0% annualized in Mar vs 3.0 (pre-revision 2.9) in Feb.
  • As Powell indicated in the discussion with Macklem on Apr 16, the Y/Y is little changed from February’s pace at a rounded 2.8 (2.82% from an upward revised 2.84), and with both the 3- and 6-mth rates running hotter suggesting no disinflationary progress.
  • Supercore run rates meanwhile: 5.5% over three months (from 5.0 in Feb), 3.8% over six months (from 4.0), and 3.5% Y/Y (from 3.4).
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  • Core PCE inflation printed 0.32% M/M in March. That’s versus consensus of 0.3, although before yesterday’s Q1 release we’d seen 2.d.p estimates honing in on a ‘low’ 0.3.
  • That accounts for some of yesterday’s upside surprise for Q1, with the remainder being pushed back to Jan, lifted from 0.45 to 0.50%.
  • The fact some of the uplift landed early in the quarter helps explain the initially dovish FI reaction, but the still very strong run rates, especially in supercore, has helped pare those initial gains.
  • 3-mth run rate: 4.4% annualized in Mar vs 3.8 (pre-revision 3.5) in Feb.
  • 6-mth rate at 3.0% annualized in Mar vs 3.0 (pre-revision 2.9) in Feb.
  • As Powell indicated in the discussion with Macklem on Apr 16, the Y/Y is little changed from February’s pace at a rounded 2.8 (2.82% from an upward revised 2.84), and with both the 3- and 6-mth rates running hotter suggesting no disinflationary progress.
  • Supercore run rates meanwhile: 5.5% over three months (from 5.0 in Feb), 3.8% over six months (from 4.0), and 3.5% Y/Y (from 3.4).