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Core PCE Consistent With 2% Target In June

US DATA
  • Core PCE printed a ‘low’ 0.2 in June at 0.165% M/M (cons 0.2) and with downward revisions to the prior two months but the largest -0.03pp back in April which limits some of the impact (revisions were expected after yesterday’s soft Q2 advance).
  • It’s a monthly rate consistent with the 2% target, having last been there or lower in Jul’22 and before that Feb’21.
  • Services saw a mild acceleration from 0.25% to 0.275% M/M but importantly the Fed’s preferred indicator of core non-housing services eased a tenth to 0.22% M/M. It was unrevised at 0.23% in May although also saw a downward revision in April, from 0.42% to 0.37% M/M.

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