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Core PCE Inflation As Expected

US DATA
  • Core PCE inflation was on balance broadly in line with expectations in November, rising a ‘small’ 0.2% M/M (unrounded 0.168%, cons 0.2) but after an upward revised 0.262% M/M in Oct (initial 0.219%).
  • Further, the bulk of the very small upward revision in yesterday’s Q3 data turned out to land in July and August, not having much impact on more recent momentum.
  • Taken together, the latest pace of moderation is very slightly faster than first thought and it leaves a core PCE print in line with the monthly rate consistent with the 2% inflation target. Aside from July, this is the first time this has been the case since Feb’21 and FOMC members will now want to see sustained prints at this level.

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