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Correction on Financials Continues As Recession Risks Surge

EMERGING MARKETS
  • We recently saw that with growth expectations likely to be reviewed significantly to the downside, financial equities remain vulnerable in the short term despite their ‘cheap’ valuation.
  • EM financials have been plunging this week, with the MSCI index breaking below its 340.10 support, which corresponds to the 23.6% Fibo retracement of the 254.50 – 366.60 range (and its LT upward trending support line).
  • Next key support to watch on the downside stands at 323.75 (38.2% Fibo).
  • EM financials are now down over 10% since their February high, and further hikes from EM policymakers (CEEMEA region) may not be enough to continue to support cyclical stocks.
  • In addition, the sharp contraction in China real money growth has also been pricing lower EM financials in the past 6 months.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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