Corrective Sell-Off Underway Ahead Of RBNZ Meet

NZD/USD has shed a handful of pips at the start to a holiday-shortened week, with the local central bank set to review policy settings before the nation observes the Easter break. The rate sits at $0.6844 as we type.

• Friday's sell-off saw the rate sink past Mar 29/22 lows of $0.6876/64, suggesting that a corrective downswing is underway. It opens the way to $0.6782, the 50% retracement of the Jan 28 - Apr 5 rally, ahead of key support from Mar 15 low of $0.6729. Conversely, bulls set their sights on Apr 5 high of $0.7034.
• PM Ardern will set out on a journey to Japan and Singapore next week to discuss trade ties. Her delegation will be joined by 13 business leaders and New Zealand's Export Growth Minister.
• Data highlights during the remainder of this week include card spending (today) & BusinessNZ M'fing PMI (Thursday). China's inflation data, due today, may also provide some interest.
• Sell-side previews are trickling in ahead of Wednesday's monetary policy decision from the RBNZ, with analysts arguing whether the MPC will opt for a 25bp or 50bp OCR hike.
• The OIS strip currently prices a two-to-one chance of a larger hike, even as most analysts in the Bloomberg survey have forecast a more measured move.