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Free AccessCost Of Servicing Household Debt Nears Multi-Cycle High [2/2]
- The servicing of this high stock of household credit market debt jumped again as lagged effects from rapidly increasing interest rates feed through, and will grow to an increasingly large drag on household consumption.
- It left the debt service ratio at 14.9% (+0.5pps) of disposable income and within a tenth of the 3Q19 high, whilst the mortgage component pushed to new multi-decade highs at 8.1%.
- From the release: “The decline in households' disposable income was a key factor in the rise of this ratio as households had less income in relation to still rising credit market debt.”
- Mortgage interest payments were 69.7% Y/Y higher in 1Q23 as a result of ongoing rate hikes whereas “obligated payments of principal declined 6.8% in 1Q23, as the significant stock of variable rate mortgages likely allowed interest payments to further adjust without a concomitant rise in principal. However, the capacity of fixed payment variable rate mortgages, which accounted for just under one-quarter of all outstanding chartered bank mortgages in Q1, to act as a sponge for rising interest costs is likely nearing its peak as borrowers with these products reach their trigger rates."
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.