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Could The NBP Surprise The Market Next Week?

POLAND
  • Investors have been questioning if the NBP could surprise the market next week with a hawkish response following the NBH and CNB responses.
  • The NBP is meeting on July 7 and could also deliver a ‘hawkish’ hike (at least 100bps) to continue its fight against inflation and support the PLN.
  • Consensus is currently split between a 75bps and 100bps, with a larger number of analysts favouring a 75bps hike.
  • However, a 75bps hike may be perceived as ‘dovish’ by the market and could add further pressure on the PLN in the near term.
  • This morning, economic data showed that inflation came in slightly higher than expected at 15.6% (15.5% exp.), up from 13.9% the previous month.
  • EURPLN broke back above the 4.70 level this morning and is gradually approaching its next ST resistance at 4.7220. Next level to watch on the topside stands at 4.7440. On the downside, first support to watch stands at 4.6520 (50DMA).
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