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Couple of forward looking points from Haskel's speech

BOE
  • "Does the current outlook suggest scope for moderation in rates anytimesoon?
  • No. The labour market is still historically tight. At current rates of change it would take at least a year to fall back to average pre-pandemic tightness, with the precise time depending critically on the greater the degree to which matching in the labour market has been impaired. Rates will have to be held higher and longer than many seem to be expecting."
  • "My thinking about the medium-term path of rates is informed by the framework above, which suggests some important signals of persistent inflation (which also have been stressed in recent MPC communications). First, the matching efficiency of the labour market appears to have been impaired since the pandemic, “tightening” the labour market. Second, productivity growth remains in the doldrums, putting upward pressure on costs. Third, if “catch-up” becomes more apparent, this would indicate continuing unexpected wage pressure. Finally, expectations are crucial, but are currently well-anchored. Monitoring these measures is, in my view, important in setting policy to return inflation sustainably to target."
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