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COVID Alert Level Rises to Highest in a Year

SOUTH AFRICA
  • A stricter set of COVID-19 activity restrictions rolled in this weekend as the country moved to level 4 (the second highest) curbs. President Ramaphosa banned alcohol, public gatherings and school attendance as well as imposed a 9pm-4am curfew as the country rolls back to a tightness of restrictions not seen since June last year.
  • The latest wave of infections is centred around Gauteng (around 1/3 of SA GDP), which is responsible for 2/3 of new cases in the country.
  • In response to the wave of infections, the SA government is expanding its vaccination programme thanks to the receipt of 1.5mln doses of the J&J jab, with another 2.1mln Pfizer doses due in July. Vaccine registration for those aged 50 and older will begin from mid-July.
  • As part of the ongoing negotiation with unions, Eskom has issued a final offer of a 1.5% pay rise at the conclusion of the latest wage talks, well below the union's demands of +15%.
  • Focus this week turns to trade balance data due Wednesday, and Manufacturing PMI on Thursday. The SARB Quarterly Bulletin also crosses tomorrow.
  • USD/ZAR remains pinned between the 100- and 50-dmas at 14.3979 and 14.0305 respectively, with the latter level providing decent support at the tail-end of last week and a break below would prove bearish.
  • Local yields are a touch higher early Monday, with 10y higher by around 2bps, but remains off the mid-June highs of 9.3640.
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