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CPI and Industrial Production Expected to Slow


Morgan Stanley sees industrial production slowing due to a base effect: "We expect IP to rise at a slower pace of 11.4%YoY in June from 29.3%YoY in May, as the base effect slowly dissipates. On a 2YCAGR basis (to adjust for base), we expect it to contract at a slower pace of -3.6% in June from -7.2% in May. This is commensurate with the slower decline in core sector data (~40% of IP) to -2.4% in June from -4.4% in May on a 2Y-CAGR basis."

  • On CPI Morgan Stanley expects to see the effects of food prices wane: "We expect headline CPI to decelerate to 5.5%YoY in July from 6.3%YoY in June. This is on the back of base effects and a broad-based decline in food and non-food non-fuel prices (core CPI)."

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